Predictions the GDP of Iraq by using Grey –Linear Regression Combined Model

Sham Azad  Rahim; Shahla Othman  Salih; Ayad Othman  Hamdin; Hindreen Abdullah  Taher

doi:10.25098/4.2.25

Authors

Sham Azad Rahim Department of Statistics and Computer, College of Commerce, University of Sulaimania, Sulaimania, Iraq
Shahla Othman Salih Department of Statistics and informatics, College of Administration , Economic, University of Sulaimania, Sulaimania, Iraq
Ayad Othman Hamdin Department of Statistics and informatics, College of Administration , Economic, University of Sulaimania, Sulaimania, Iraq
Hindreen Abdullah Taher Department of Statistics and Computer, College of Commerce, University of Sulaimania, Sulaimania, Iraq

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25098/4.2.25

Keywords:

Gross Domestic Product, Grey Model, Linear Regression Model

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total pecuniary or mart value of all final commodity and services that are produced within country's borders in a given time. We choose GDP to predict in Iraq since 2000 to 2018.The state and governments rely on GDP to help shape policy or decide how much public spending is affordable. Combining grey regression is a modern statistical technique of modeling, using this type of model is related to its highly accuracy therefor, in this study we used combined grey regression model to predict the gross domestic production of Iraq because it gives less Mse than grey or regression models alone which is equal to 1.3165 and estimated parameter of grey C1, regression C2 are equals to (2.9 and 0.205) respectively and the intercept C3 is equal to 1.8569 the outcome showed that the new model could attain preferable predicting result contrasted with different predicting methods.

References

ARNOLD. Roger A, (2008). Macroeconomics. 8th ed. Thomson higher education. Mason, USA.

FAGAN. Doreen. (2019). What is GDP, and why is it important? [online]. Received at: https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2019/march/what-is-gdp-why-important

FARMER. Roger E. A. (1997). Macroeconomics. UCLA. Los Angeles, USA

GARRAT. Dean, (2013). Macroeconomics. Pearson education limited. Harlow, United Kingdom.

MANKIW. N. Gregory, (2001). Macroeconomics. 5th ed. New York, USA

O’SULLIVAN. Arthur, SHEFFRIN. Steven M, and PEREZ. Stephen J, (2012). Macroeconomics; principles, applications, and tools. 7th ed. Pearson education, Inc. USA

OECD (2009), National Accounts of OECD Countries 2009, Volume I, Main Aggregates, OECD Publishing, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/na_vol_1-2009-en-fr.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (2019). Gross domestic product. [online]. Received at: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

The Economic Times, (2019). Gross domestic product. [online] received at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/definition/gross-domestic-product